June 1st, 2011 • Posted in General Observations
Yesterday, Jason McCabe Calacanis invited me to respond to his post “Has Google Been Naughty? Yes. Should the Government Get Involved? No”. You can read responses from Vivek Wadhwa and Robert Scoble along with mine in a handy digest on the Launch blog. The following post is the full text of my response to Calacanis view of Google’s future path.
There’s a predictable cycle in business, at least in the sectors of technology, media and telecommunications.
In the first part of the cycle, companies achieve success by introducing a new service that delights customers: call it the “Value Creation” phase. This is the phase when lots of customers sign up. Remember when you bought your first Windows computer, your first iPod, or your first smartphone? Chances are good that you made the switch at the exact same moment when millions of other people were migrating to these new gizmos, too. Everyone was attracted by a novel combination of utility, cool factor and the right price.
But over time, as the new product/service evolves into our daily habit, some companies are tempted to Continue Reading
December 20th, 2009 • Posted in General Observations
“Never make forecasts, especially about the future.” Wise advice from Samuel Goldwyn. Which I am now about to ignore at my peril. Here’s my take on what to expect in 2010.
1. The Dawn of Ambient Awareness & Networked Consciousness
What happens when real-time status updates and news feeds are combined with GPS location data and context-aware computing? You may experience a new kind of awareness that leverages the perceptions and commentary of other people. You might call it collective intelligence. And it will make you smarter. Continue Reading
December 16th, 2009 • Posted in General Observations
- The Motorola Droid features a slide-out keyboard
With the Droid, Motorola and Google have introduced a credible alternative to the iPhone and Apple’s vision of mobility.
Until now, the reaction among handset manufacturers to Apple’s innovation has been pretty disappointing. For more than a year, the best that the wireless phone makers could muster was mere imitation. One measure of the sheer terror Continue Reading
October 16th, 2008 • Posted in General Observations
Next week I will travel to Rome to give a keynote speech to the Nokia Developer Summit. Some friends have asked me why. Given the recent release of the Gooogle Android phone and the Apple iPhone 3G, there has been a surge of commentary about the smartphones in the tech blogs. The general thrust of such blog posts is that the newcomers will transform the mobile industry.
I disagree. The newcomers may have an impact, perhaps an outsized impact, but in reality the primary driver of change in mobile is one of the old giants: Nokia. No major mobile technology company comes close to Nokia in its support of open standards, open software and open APIs. And no company comes close to challenging Nokia’s 30%+ market share. Continue Reading
August 10th, 2008 • Posted in General Observations
Apple‘s legendary obsession with controlling information and availability of products has reached the tipping point. A growing number of iPhone developers are grumbling about the arbitrary nature of the decision-making process which governs which applications get included in the iTunes storefront. A spate of recent stories highlights what is clearly a haphazard and chaotic process. Worse, for those who are paranoid about Apple’s ability to control how consumers make use of the iPhone is the emergence of a blacklist built into the phone. No one knows what the criteria for making the blacklist might be… and Apple isn’t telling anyone.
Simultaneously, a growing number of consumers are voicing their concerns with the iPhone, too.
Coming on the heels of the widely-publicized glitch in the launch of the iPhone 3G and the much-publicized failure of the MobileMe service, these reactions underscore just how difficult it is to execute a new strategy in the wireless business. It turns out the mobile carriers are not so bad, after all. Continue Reading