COLLABORATIVE CREATIVITY

The big debate this weekend in my home had nothing to do with movies or directors even though it’s Oscar season. Instead, we speculated about the future of the book.

Specifically, i bet my dinner companions an unreasonable amount on the following proposition: within five years, publishers would be unable to afford to print hard bound editions of most new books. And so, they would choose not to publish them at all in the traditional form. Hundreds of years of print history will come to an end.

My dinner companions objected strenuously, deriding my proposition as unfounded, but I stand by it. Here’s why:

First of all, it’s no secret that the print business is in terrible shape overall. increasing costs, margin pressure, and a lousy economy have all conspired to weaken the print publishers.

Second, nowadays, readers have abundant options to substitute for books: free magazines and newspapers, web sites, mobile applications. We are awash in print media. And we’re constantly bathed in electronic media presented on innumerable glowing screens that surround us in homes, offices, airports, airplanes, cars, taxis, buses, elevators, stadiums, subways, shopping malls, and so on. We have too many other options.

Third, the base of consumers who actually purchase books must be shrinking. I don’t have the data to back this assertion up, but it seems evident that fewer people purchase hardback books now that they have so many other media options.

Fourth, and most important, the publishing model is changing fast. The introduction of the Kindle, the iPad and dozens of other newfangled e-book readers will transform the market for book publishing in a very short time. If just one third of readers switch from purchasing hard bound books to purchasing digital editions, it could undermine the publishing model entirely because the costs of setting, printing, binding and shipping hard bound editions will still be necessary, but they will be amortized across far fewer books. The business model won’t hold up. Publishers will cease to create hardbound books, except in special editions (akin to DVD box sets and commemorative edition CD collections).

As a book lover, this is a dismal scenario. But I believe it is inevitable, and coming much sooner than we expect.

Think back to 2002. If someone told you then that 2/3s of music shops would be closed within five years, you would have laughed with derision. If someone predicted that 80% of a label’s income would be from non-CD digital downloads by the end of the decade, you would have howled. But now, it has come to pass. And the music industry has been transformed forever.

We’re about to go through that cycle again, but this time it will be the book publishers going through the meatgrinder. Who knows what will emerge on the other side?

Check out this piece in the New York Times that breaks out the financials for book publishing and contrasts them with eBook pubishing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/business/media/01ebooks.html?em

Posted via email from Think Twice

Will HTML5 make Adobe Flash irrelevant? Maybe someday but not soon.
There’s been a lot of speculative chatter lately about HTML5 as a replacement for Adobe Flash, fueled by Steve Jobs’ dark pronouncements during the splashy launch of the iPad. And recent reports about HTML5 video experiments by YouTube and Vimeo added to the brouhaha. [Read more →]

Worthwhile reading for those who seek insight into the big trends that will shape the world of media, communications and audience behavior. No surprises here but nevertheless a really useful concise roundup of the big changes in consumer electronics, ubiquitous web access, media consumption and participation. There has been a flurry of news since the big CES show, but most of it consists of snippets and fragments. Ben has a knack for surveying lots of little evolutionary steps and distilling them into a recognizable pattern. http://mashable.com/2010/01/24/internet-of-tomorrow-column/

Posted via email from Think Twice

The use of the Internet to tell stories pre-dates the World Wide Web, but most major publishing houses have been slow to grasp the power of collaborative creativity. Now Harper Collins launches Inkpop.com, a well-executed online storytelling tool for teenagers. Post your original story, chapter by chapter, get feedback from readers, make edits and revisions in public. Readers can participate by making lists of favorites and by promoting the works that they favor. It’s worth paying attention to Inkpop. I have no doubt that the publisher will find talented writers who assemble their very own online audience of fans and convert them into book readers.

Posted via email from Think Twice

On Friday, Kara Swisher of AllThingsDigital hosted a panel discussion about Social Media at the Sundance Film Festival. I was excited to join the discussion with smart people from MySpace, Facebook, Google, Participant. It was especially cool to meet filmmaker Ondi Timoner, the two-time winner of the the Sundance Grand Jury award. She added a very pragmatic perspective. It was a lively discussion that covered the evolving role of the audience in storytelling, the economics of online media versus traditional media, the part played by big distribution sites like YouTube, FB and MySpace, and many ways filmmakers can connect directly with their audiences. Here’s the interview that Kara did with Jason Hirschhorn, David Eun, me and her mom (no kidding!): http://bit.ly/6xIvNr

Posted via email from Think Twice

A worthy missive, considering the massive cultural, economic and political shifts that are taking place around the world now. I found the comment from one reader apt: “I know that all you said is true. Why do I feel so alone in this knowledge, though?” As William Gibson said, the future is already here, it just isn’t even distributed. http://www.evolutionshift.com/blog/2010/01/01/the-transformation-decade/

Posted via email from Think Twice

At a time when Hollywood is focused on big budget blockbusters, it’s nice to see that there’s an alternative. Examples of crowdsourced creativity. http://www.geniusrocket.com/info/case_studies/

Posted via email from Think Twice

This list is useful. Like it or not, these are the tech trends with the most momentum as we move into 2010. http://ow.ly/XexP

Posted via email from Think Twice

Why doesn’t Twitter grow? Mashable’s Ben Parr provides stats and analysis on the flatlining of Twitter usage. http://bit.ly/6YpwMI

Posted via email from Think Twice